Left to Chance
People have an innate sense of probability. Daily we consider the chances of this
or that happening. When we talk with someone we often fail to listen to the other
person because we are busy deciding what we want to say next based on what we
predict they will have said when they are done. When we drive down the road we
constantly take in information through sight, touch, and sound. Then decide what
we should do based on what we think someone else may to, what our vehicle may do,
or how driving conditions may change.
A favorite pastime is wagering on the outcome of some event that will occur in the
future. Needless to say the ability of individual's to predict what comes next
varies widely. This ability also varies with kind of event that is being predicted.
Some say this has to do with an individual's super natural power. Mostly, though,
it has to do with how well an individual can identify all the things that can
effect the outcome in question. Also, it depends on their ability to evaluate the
current state and likely changes in all of those things.
Some are so interested in predicting what comes next that they make a science out
of it. Weather forecasting is an example of such an endeavor. People who manufacture
things want to know how often and how the things they make will fail. This and
predicting weather are examples of large areas where a massive effort is put into
the scientific prediction of what comes next. Regardless of how you feel about the
accuracy of the daily weather forecasts or that your new television just broke,
these people have demonstrated enough value to those who pay them, that they continue
to pay them. Indeed they are also paid to further develop their knowledge so they can
predict more events and predict them more accurately. A big reason for this
perpetuation is based on the actual good predictions these people have made and
continue to make on a daily basis. Another reason why we chose to continue pursuing
such efforts is that we seem to innately believe that we can improve our ability to
predict what comes next. This is reinforced by the positive results we gain along the
way.
While all of this is going on, there are others, unaware of these efforts or who
have chosen to ignore them. Many of these believe, from a philosophical view, that
it is wrong to try and figure out what comes next. Indeed, many believe it is futile
to try because ultimately it is beyond human capability to know what comes next.
They believe they are taking a "what will be will be" approach to life, but as it
turns out, they too are predicting what comes next. On closer observation of even
the most dedicated "what will come will come" people, one finds they are unable to
escape making predictions. Even in very simple things, for instance when striking a
match, they are predicting a high chance that it will light. They are confident in
that prediction or they would not bother to try. Indeed, as they have struck matches
through their life they have gathered data that allows them to predict the cases
where the match is likely to fail. When it is wet for instance.
By making careful observations and collecting the data we are getting rather good
at predicting what happens with our stuff. That is equipment, crops, live stock,
etc. In some cases the accuracy of our predictions is on par with weather
forecasting, but none the less useful. Predicting what people do and think though
has long been thought to be much more difficult or impossible.
There have been significant strides; not all of which are well publicized.
Politicians were among the first to have a strong interest in this sort of
prediction. If a politician is standing for election, they certainly want to know
what their chance is of being elected. Polling is one of their main ways to gather
information on how people are likely to vote. Polling lets the politician predict
what percent of the vote they are likely to get. When the percentage that is
predicted is not in-line with what the politician would like to insure election,
they go the next step.
Up to this point, the predictions discussed here have been about trying to figure
out what comes next. Now they will move into the realm of using prediction to
influence what comes next. At this point the politician polls not to find out how
people will vote, but rather to find out what their issues are, to determine what
they want. Next the politician decides which of the issues they are willing to
say they will do something about. The word is then spread to the population that
the politician will do what the people want. A new vote poll is taken and the
results usually show an improved percent of the population who will vote for them.
Predicting the behavior of an individual has been thought very difficult, but for
over a hundred years now a huge number of psychologists, psychiatrists, and
behaviorists of every stripe have been gathering the data to help enable exactly
that. Gathering the data on an individual to predict their behavior in some regard
tends to be very expensive so that activity has generally been reserved to law
enforcement agencies etc. who try to predict the actions of people who have caught
the agency's attention. Recent events though have led these agencies to want more
capability in that regard. The answer seems to be to gather lots and lots of data
on everyone in as automated ways as possible to keep the cost down.
Since ancient times some people have professed the ability to see the future. Some
have professed to see into the past. While yet others say they can see into the
minds of others. Though not nearly as grand as the oracles in ancient Greece, or as
detailed as the fortunetellers who report via telephone, there are some initial
scientific findings that some more modest powers exist in some individuals. An
example is a person being able to predict a geometric shape on a card being looked
at by another person. Given that such powers exist there are still issues around the
integrity of the individual's reports concerning what they perceive and the limits
of their ability.
In spite of the "what will be will be" philosophy, we are firmly in the practice of
predicting what comes next. Sure, some areas of endeavor produce more accurate
results than others, but that will improve over time. Certainly there will always be
things that are out of reach, but the things that are out of reach will change over
time.
Now, let's take a look at a common situation in three different cases. In all three
cases, a person wants to buy a house. The first person is of the "what will be will
be" persuasion. They apply for a mortgage and if it is approved they have gotten
what they want. If they are not approved they did not get what they wanted, but
either way there was no preparation and no follow up. The next person decides that
before they apply for the mortgage they will try to determine if they will qualify
for the mortgage. They go to a web site that offers such a service and fill in the
forms. They get a result and can go ahead based on the result. They have in effect
made a prediction of the future they can act on. In this case we will say that the
person got a negative result and decided not to pursue the matter further. The third
person also determines if they will qualify before they apply for the mortgage. They
also get a negative result. They have predicted the future, but in this case they are
determined to get a better result. To accomplish this, they do the effort necessary
to understand why the prediction was negative. Then they make plans to change the
factors in the prediction that produced the negative result. In this case the person
is taking the next step like the politician and used the prediction as the basis to
influence the future result.
Yes, we can leave our lives to chance, but why should we? No, we don't have all of
the control in our lives we would like, but why should that stop us? If we can get
the mortgage or other desirable outcome when we would not have otherwise; isn't the
effort worth it? Others are predicting what we will do. Shouldn't we understand that
and the implications of their predictions?
Copyright © by Liesel Siobhan
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